Saturday, May 16, 2009

Baseball Betting: What Works For Me

***This article was written by guest sports writer Tyler Hunt***

Baseball is a tough sport to bet on because so many factors play into the final outcome of a game. This is what makes is so great. Everybody has their own opinion on how to be successful betting on games, and I am no different. I have tried multiple different techniques such as parlays, run lines, money lines and betting multiple games separately and have found what works for me and what hasn’t. Please note that the starting pitchers are much more important than any other factors when the odds makers determine the money lines.

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Home field advantage is a far second, unlike all the other major sports. In both pro basketball and pro football home field advantage is the key factor in determining the final odds. I will take 2 pitchers who over the last three years are considered front line starting pitchers. Roy Oswalt and Johan Santana are the pitchers I will use in this example. For these players the average money line when they are starting is typically between +180 to +250 for the opposing team. This means you can almost always get 2 to 1 odds when betting against their teams. Sure you are probably wondering why I would bet against the top pitchers in baseball. Here are my reasons, and for an example I will use a +200 money line for bets against them because this is a fair number to use.

In 2008 Roy Oswalt started 32 games for the Houston Astros and in the games he started his teams record was 19 wins and 13 losses. If you had bet one hundred dollars against the Astros in each start and had a +200 money line for each one of those games you would have made 700.00 at the end of the year. This is taking into consideration the money you layed out, and the money you brought in.

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A worse example which still proves the point is Johan Santana. He had 34 starts in 2008 and the Mets were the winning team on 22 of his starts. 12 times the team lost during his starts throughout the season, so if you bet one hundred dollars on each start and if the Mets were a 2-1 favorite when he started then you would have one 2400 dollars on the games they won. Minus the 2200 you would have lost on the games the Mets won, you would have come out up 200 dollars on top at the end of the year. This is sports betting and it is always going to be difficult, but by betting the front line starters to win is fools gold. You will have to put out much more money than you will get back. I feel the best way to win is to spot bet against a guy like Santana when the Mets bullpen is tired and been struggling.

Sometimes you can get a good money line against a team like the Marlins who have a solid young pitcher that doesn’t get the respect buy the odds makers, and lay out a couple hundred against the Mets. There is no exact science, but I feel this gives me the best odds in the long run.

***This article was written by guest sports writer Tyler Hunt***

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