Thursday, May 21, 2009

Myth vs Reality

The Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets are squaring off in the Western Conference Finals as we speak. The Lakers are currently up 1-0 in their best of 7 series, thanks to a nail biting finish in Game 1. Game 2 takes place in Los Angeles tonight, at the Staples Center. Let's take a closer look at this series and separate myth vs. reality.

The Lakers beat the Nuggets 105 - 103 in Game 1. The Nuggets had the lead throughout the game, as they got off to a great start in the first quarter. Carmelo Anthony was especially hot, specifically in the first half. He ended up with 39 points! Better yet, he scored 39 off of 20 shots. That's amazing efficiency right there. As a group, the Nuggets shot almost 49% for the game, and hit 8 of 19 three pointers. On the flip side, the Lakers shot only 41% from the field. The Nuggets also out hustled the Lakers and were the far physical team in Game 1. So, to sum up the game, you had the Nuggets play a very efficient game, with the proper game plan. Yet, they still LOST.

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Am I being hard on the Nuggets? I don't think so, as look at the expectations that they were saddled with heading into the Western Conference Finals. This was the "IT" team, that had the WOW factor. This is the team that had demolished their opposition in their first two playoff series. This was the team that had the athletes to be able to run and compete against the Lakers. This was also the team that "experts" thought would beat the Lakers, and represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals.

Is this series over? Far from it! However, I think it's time to look in the mirror and see the Nuggets for what they really are! I mentioned in my first article about how important it is to look ahead, and to stay ahead of the curve. If you can successfully do this, sports betting will be a profitable venture for you. So again, I ask you to look in the mirror and ask yourself how good the Nuggets truly are.



I know professional oddsmakers already have looked in the mirror. Game 2 is a TRAP. Oddsmakers want you to take the Denver Nuggets in Game 2. After all, the Nuggets nearly won Game 1 while covering the point spread, so of course they will win Game 2 right?? That's what the average sports bettor is thinking. But the goal is to be anything BUT average. Can the Nuggets really perform like they did in Game 1? Can the Nuggets really have the lead for the majority of the game like they did in Game 1? Oddsmakers have set the Lakers as 5.5 favorites heading into tonight’s game. More importantly, the general betting public is all over the Denver Nuggets on both the point spread and the moneyline. So why has the point spread not moved since its inception, despite heavy action on the Nuggets?

As mentioned in my first article, look in the mirror yet again and find out why Vegas is setting the line they are. I'll answer this question for you! This line is set the way it is because of the public perception of the Denver Nuggets. Oddsmakers are playing off the fact that the Nuggets are the "IT" team. Oddsmakers are using the public against themselves!

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Ever heard of the statement if its too good to be true, it probably is? Ever heard of how easy it is to jump on the bandwagon? Oddsmakers are fully aware of these public shifts in opinion. If you still don't believe me, go around the web and look at other betting message boards. You will find nothing more than a popularity contest, where everyone follows a select few "experts" and then chime in with the same exact thoughts. Watching this happen, you will realize this is a small sample size of what the actual sports bettor does with their own betting patterns. This scenario is what burned Boston Celtic backers in Game 7. More importantly, it's what is going to burn Denver Nugget backers in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals.

In closing, don't be afraid to step up to the plate, to jump OFF the bandwagon, and to separate myth from reality! Your confidence and bankroll will grow with every win!

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Written by Mike Harness of TopSportsBets.com

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